Graceland Updates 4am-7am
Email: stewart@gracelandupdates.com
Sep 30, 2010
1. Time.
2. "We have a bubble forming in bonds. I do not know if it is going to pop this year or in 2012. I have no idea, but it is at worrisome levels. And I do not know how much longer you can keep promoting a bubble like that. The central bank in the US is doing it...eventually no matter how good a bubble looks, it pops, and when it pops, people sell their bonds and that is going to happen. I just do not know when." - Jim "mighty man" Rogers. Sep 28, 2010.
3. "I know bonds have gone up for 30 years, and that's why I was so smart to start buying them in Oct 2008 after losing all my money in my last multi-year price chase, the stock market. I know my new (no)growth with (no)safety bond market trade gives me the balance I need in my investments. My new financial advisor is an income investment expert. I fired my old one on the day of the low for the Dow in march 2009, and I sold everything risky. My new advisor specializes in putting widow and orphan money into his company's elite income portfolios! He's one of the nicest people I've ever met; so friendly, so helpful, so professional, a (pipe)dream come true! I already consider him one of the family! -Elmer Fudd Public Investor. Sep 30, 2010.
4. Time.
5. You've just witnessed TIME at work in the gold market. Professionals understand time. Amateurs make demands of time. I've stated many times that the bare minimum range pgen at work needs to cover $100 of gold price or gold price-equivalent action. $300 is ideal.
6. Gold blasted to another new high this morning! Gold is now up about $170 from the low, and some of the oscillators on gold stock charts, particularly the juniors, are starting to turn up again. Dennis "the gold market menace" Gartman is back, with a new and (supposedly) improved top call.
7. Dennis terms the current gold market "way overbought". I think a better description would be "way notbought". Not bought by him into 1156.
8. I met with GS Rick from the newsletter The Golden Surveyor for breakfast yesterday. He made money for 15 years in a row paying retail commissions trading very actively, and sold out of the stock market totally in Dec 1999 after being nearly 100% invested in it, and moved into gold. What does he think about gold now? Rick is a general seller of gold items right now in his trading accounts, as is every professional I know. He's up to about 30% cash in his trading accounts. His view is that gold is likely going higher now, and he'll continue to book profit on his trading positions while making money on his core positions. That is the same strategy in play now by every professional I know. None of us are top callers. All of us are profit bookers.
9. Some of you have asked me about shorting gold, buying put options, etc. Booking profit into strength and be worried about gold might crash are two separate items. This is the strong season for gold and a paper money crisis is brewing. I would only be shorting gold as a mechanism to book profit on long positions you don't want to physically liquidate. If you hold a 400 ounce bar, and want to liquidate 20% of your position over a $300 upmove, you can short a gold ETF or buy a bear ETF to accomplish that task, without having to dump the whole bar, then rebuy smaller bars.
10. Carry a decent amount of cash to buy more gold when it DOES fall hard, but try to get out of the mindset that you "need" it to fall now.
11. Time.
12. Jim Rogers can't call the top in the bond market, so you shouldn't try either. Respond to bonds on the buy after they collapse. The money made on the short or long side in bonds now, could be DWARFED by the money made in gold stocks on the long side, so I don't see any practical application of taking action in the bond market in the near term, either long or short. When the gold bull ends, it likely trades sideways. When the bond bull ends, it's rice paper in a blast furnace. From a choice of assets perspective, it's a no-brainer which asset I want to be involved in, here and now.
13. So what about the overbought situation on gold highlighted by the menace? As far as the menace goes, which isn't very far, here's a wake up call for him: the gold WEEKLY chart oscillators like MACD are actually on BUY signals, not overbought sell signals. So while gold can't be price chased and the oscillators are overbought on the daily chart, that situation calls for profit booking.
14. NOT TOP CALLING.
15. I'd like to ask you all for several moments of silence this morning. We might as well have one for the menace. He's likely all-out short and all-out on fire.
16. Second, team non-confirmation. These are the technical analysis wizards in their own mind crew, that believed that as gold burst upside out of the head and shoulders bull continuation pattern at 1033, the fact that silver and gold stocks "failed to confirm" that move was "bearish for gold" and "2008 again" was coming.
17. Silver took out 21.46 this week, going to a new 30 year high. Strike one for team non-confirmation. I told you when gold broke out upside that we were dealing with the marking to market by the banksters of trillions of direct and indirect OTC derivatives contracts marked to ZERO by the banksters.
18. Time.
19. Gold stocks were beaten down an average of 70-90% in 2008 and silver was mauled 70%. Gold fell the least as the banksters marked the rest of the hundreds of trillions of toilet paper OTCD's to model. Silver has now recovered and is trading over $22 in the cash market this morning. Would you all please bow your heads for a moment of silence for team gold-silver non confirmation? OK, thanks, now you can flush the toilet and wave good-bye to them.
20. Another moment of silence needs to be held for those who believed the non-confirmation of gold and gold stocks meant everything was going to crash. I, alone in the gold community, highlighted the move byNewmont to prices above the 2007 high as the first CONFIRMATION by gold stocks of the gold bullion upmove.
21. One by one, more stocks confirmed, and now there is a LINE UP of gold stocks at the confirmation elevator to take the trip to the top floor.
22. Some of you need to face a bit of harsh reality with the individual situations you are holding. You need to understand this is a crisis of otc derivatives, and the 2008 marking to market punished asset prices severely. Many junior stocks ran out of money. Others hedged production to survive. Some don't even know they hedged; it's hidden in contracts they signed with the banksters. Demanding that all juniors confirm what gold is doing, especially IMMEDIATELY, is a fantasy move. Have some patience with situations that are solid and keep in mind the damage that has been done.
23. My web app fellow, "superman" is working to put a "lot size" function in the pgen. You may experience "pgen blackouts" on the website over the next 48hrs or so as he configures things. Juniors stocks are going to be a major theme going forwards, and the minimum lot size trade on these stocks is rounded to the nearest 100 shares. So placing a trade of 1137 shares, for example could see you filled at 1100. He's also added an extra decimal point to the pgen, which should assist those of you buying in tight increments on the juniors situations, like 29 and a half cents a share, for example. .295
ARE YOU LISTENING MR. GOLDLION ?
24. Take a good look at the TRIPOD video report I posted on the website last nite for the agricultural sector, and a similar video for the GDXJ on the juniors site.
25. GDXJ took a 6% hit, while team "snooze and lose" bought nothing. Then it burst higher immediately. You CAN be a buyer of gold now, but your first order of business is ALWAYS to manage what you DON'T KNOW, versus what you THINK you do know. The range tripod does exactly that; you become a player at current prices with a tight range pgen, but you have an additional range pgen right below this one, and another right above it, so when price proves you wrong in your predictions, it makes you a WINNER in your ACTIONS. A wiener in thought, a winner in action. Sounds good to me!
See you THERE!
Thanks,
st
Thank-you